In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems.
Sometimes what's recommended to the people is something different than what's recommended to the leaders, because I have been recommended to use hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis and the probability of this harming you is very low.
The probability of apocalypse soon cannot be realistically estimated, but it is surely too high for any sane person to contemplate with equanimity.
The fact that we don't keep repeating tests in the same arena is not because the probability of the hypothesis showing its falsity in other arenas goes up after it has passed tests in one arena.
One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low.
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
I like - I love calculus. I love linear algebra, probability and statistics, that kind of stuff. I just really like that.
I like - I love calculus. I love linear algebra, probability and statistics, that kind of stuff. I just really like that.
A scientist worthy of a lab coat should be able to make original discoveries while wearing a clown suit, or give a lecture in a high squeaky voice from inhaling helium. It is written nowhere in the math of probability theory that one may have no fun.
I have found, unfortunately, that if I take on too many projects at one time, there is a higher probability of those projects sucking.